中国海外投资国家风险评级报告·2018
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摘要:中国已经是全球第二大对外直接投资国。但在对外直接投资迅速增长的同时,中国企业海外投资面临的外部风险也在显著提升。本书从中国企业和主权财富的海外投资视角出发,构建了经济基础、偿债能力、社会弹性、政治风险和对华关系五大指标、共41个子指标全面和量化评估了中国企业海外投资所面临的主要风险。从总的评级结果来看,发达经济体的经济基础较好,偿债能力较强,社会弹性较高,政治风险较低,整体投资风险明显低于新兴经济体。对新兴经济体来说,经济基础和政治风险与发达国家差距仍然非常明显,政治局势的不确定性可能会影响经济复苏进程,进而影响直接投资的环境。

关键词:海外投资;国家风险评级;指标体系;“一带一路”

Abstract:China is the world second-largest overseas investor.But the external risks facing Chinese firms in overseas investment saw a clear increase.This book quantitatively assesses the main risks facing Chinese enterprises investing abroad.The rating system designs five major indexes that comprise 41 sub-indexes.The five indexes include economic foundation,debt repayment capacity,social elasticity,political risk,and relations with China.On the whole,the developed countries have better economic foundations,lower political risks,better social elasticity and stronger debt repayment capacity;therefore,the overall risks of investing in those countries are obviously lower than in emerging-market economies.For the emerging-market economies,their gap with the developed countries in terms of economic foundation and political risk remains huge;political instability may affect the process of economic recovery and in turn undermine the investment environment.

Key Words:Overseas Investment,Country-risk Rating,Index System,Belt and Road